The Cabo Real Estate Market Right Now

I have been watching the Cabo real estate market from the inside since 2022. Not from a brokerage window. Not from a developer's sales office. From the position of an owner — someone who bought here, operated here, navigated the bureaucracy here, and watched the market shift in real time from a hillside in Pedregal.

What I am about to share is not a pitch. It is what the data actually says — sourced from the brokers, analysts, and market reports that track this market professionally. And it has some significant implications for anyone considering a purchase in Los Cabos right now.

The Slowdown Was Real

The post-COVID boom in Cabo real estate was extraordinary. Low inventory, surging demand, properties moving in days. It felt like it would never slow down.

It slowed down.

Sales across all of Baja California Sur dropped 35 percent in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. Full year 2024 total sales volume came in at $1.42 billion — a 16 percent decrease from $1.69 billion the year before. Condo sales specifically fell from 86 transactions in September 2023 to just 28 in September 2024 — a 67 percent decline in a single year. Days on market stretched from 245 days to 282.

Several factors drove this. Election year uncertainty in both the US and Mexico made buyers hesitant. Interest rates made HELOCs — a common financing tool for US buyers — more expensive. The dollar weakened against the peso, making Mexico more expensive for foreign buyers even as peso-denominated costs for developers held firm.

The boom did not crash. But it corrected significantly. And it did not correct evenly.

2025 and 2026 — Recovery, But Selective

The first half of 2025 showed recovery — 1,038 properties sold totaling $878 million, a 24 percent increase over the same period in 2024. That sounds like good news and in some segments it is.

But the headline number masks what is actually happening on the ground.

Active inventory grew from approximately 1,100 listings a year ago to over 2,500 today. The market has more than doubled in available supply while demand has recovered only partially. As of early 2026 condos are averaging 154 days on market. Houses average 172 days. That is five to six months from listing to sale — in a market that was moving properties in weeks just two years ago.

What this means in practical terms: buyers have leverage they did not have in 2021 and 2022. They are using it. They are comparing sold data carefully, evaluating price per square foot, analyzing rental potential, and walking away from anything that does not demonstrate clear competitive advantage.

The Pre-Construction Trap Is Getting Worse

This is the part that deserves the most attention — because it directly affects a large segment of what is currently being marketed in Los Cabos.

The pre-construction boom of 2021 and 2022 created a wave of projects that are now completing — or trying to. As they hit the market simultaneously, supply has outpaced absorption in ways developers did not anticipate when they launched.

In El Tezal — one of Cabo's most active development corridors — months of available inventory for condos and homes have crept well past 24. That means at the current pace of sales it would take two full years to sell through existing supply. New projects continue to launch anyway. Out-of-town developers arrive with a track record from Tulum, Cancun, or Playa del Carmen and assume the same formula works in Cabo. It does not always.

Recent MLS data from El Tezal shows the average two-bedroom resale condo under $500,000 listing at approximately $353,000 — while the average pre-construction unit in the same area lists at $358,000. That is a negative spread. The buyer accepting construction risk, regime incorporation delay, deed timeline uncertainty, and a multi-year wait is paying more than the buyer who buys finished and moves in next month.

The math no longer works in favor of pre-construction. And the risk has not gone down.

Meanwhile the projects themselves are feeling the pressure. Slower sales mean slower deposits. Slower deposits mean slower construction. Slower construction means longer timelines to regime incorporation. Longer regime timelines mean deeds pushed further out. Buyers who committed in 2022 expecting to receive a deed in 2023 or 2024 are in some cases still waiting. Others, feeling financially pinched by the extended wait, are looking to exit — creating a wave of recently delivered units hitting resale at discounted prices.

This is not speculation. It is what multiple active brokers tracking this market in real time are reporting.

What IS Actually Selling

The data tells a clear story about what moves in this market and what does not.

Buyers are prioritizing finished properties over land or pre-construction. Land sales declined 45 percent in volume in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024 — buyers are not interested in waiting on a build. They want something they can use or rent immediately.

Properties with proven rental income histories are moving. The value-driven buyer of 2025 and 2026 wants documentation — not projections. Not renderings. Not a developer's income estimate. Actual revenue data from actual guests over actual years of operation.

Well-located properties in established gated communities with strong amenities are specifically identified by market analysts as the segment holding value and moving decisively. Pedregal is named explicitly in current market analysis as recommended for long-term value in this environment.

The buyer who is active right now is sophisticated, patient, and skeptical of anything that cannot be verified. They are not going to be moved by a sales presentation. They are going to be moved by documentation.

What This Means If You Are Considering Buying in Cabo Right Now

The market is telling you something clear.

The buyers who are closing right now are the ones who found properties that check all of those boxes — and who had the discipline to walk away from everything that does not, regardless of how compelling the sales pitch was.

That discipline is harder than it sounds when you are standing in a beautifully staged model unit looking at a rendering of an ocean view. But the data supports it completely.

If you are evaluating a pre-construction purchase in Los Cabos right now — particularly in a corridor with high existing inventory like El Tezal — the questions you need answered before you commit any funds are these:

What is the developer's track record on previous projects in this specific market? What is the current sales velocity on this project — actual signed contracts, not expressed interest? What specifically triggers each escrow release? When will the condominium regime be incorporated — and what has to happen first? What is the realistic deed timeline, and what happens to that timeline if sales slow?

If the answers are vague — or if getting clear answers requires effort — that is the data point that matters most.

The Alternative

There is a segment of the Cabo market that the current conditions favor strongly.

Finished properties in established communities. Individually deeded. Verified income history. Operating track record. Transferrable management system. Ready to close in weeks not years.

These properties exist. They are not as glamorous as a presale launch event. There is no early investor pricing. There are no renderings of a future that has not arrived yet.

What there is instead is documentation. A deed that is real today. Revenue that has been generated and can be verified. A property that your accountant can underwrite and your attorney can close without waiting on a developer's legal team to finish a process that may take longer than anyone is telling you.